Nus Board · MLB

Rays at Guardians Game 3: Ride the Hot Arm

By The Sports Nus Staff | October 15, 2026

Thursday, 1:00 PM ET · Progressive Field, Cleveland · TBS, truTV, HBO Max · Series tied 1-1 · Williams vs Jax

The ALCS is a best-of-five now. Cleveland stole Game 1 in Tampa 7-3, the Rays answered 3-1 in Game 2 behind six scoreless innings from Freddy Peralta and a fourth-inning error by Jose Ramirez that opened the door for three unearned runs, and now the series shifts to Progressive Field for an afternoon start. First pitch was moved from 6 p.m. to 1 p.m. ET with heavy rain forecast for Thursday night in Cleveland, so both teams get the strange October matinee.

Cleveland is handing the ball to the hottest arm in the series. Gavin Williams was the hero of the ALDS clincher against the White Sox: 12 strikeouts over 5.1 one-hit innings in Game 5, and he has not allowed an earned run in three straight outings. The 27-year-old righty struck out 248 in 184.1 innings this season with a 12.1 K/9, and he is pitching on normal rest after the Guardians waited to announce him. This is the best version of Williams, and it is arriving in October.

Tampa Bay counters with Griffin Jax, and this is the gamble. Jax is making his first career postseason start. He was solid as a starter this year, 7-8 with a 3.14 ERA in 103.1 innings, and his last three outings were sharp: 13 scoreless innings with 13 strikeouts and a 0.69 WHIP. But those were not October starts on the road in Cleveland with the series tied, and his relief work this postseason has been shaky. The Rays are betting the moment is not too big. That is a real bet to make against this version of Williams.

Cleveland was only 41-40 at home this season, which is the knock, but the Guardians already won in Tampa and they have the clearly better starting pitcher today. Game 2 was 3-1. Game 1 was the outlier. Expect a tight, low-scoring afternoon where one swing decides it, and the home team has the arm to make that swing stand up.

Betting angle

Guardians ML (-134). The board's play. Williams just punched out 12 in the ALDS clincher and has not allowed an earned run in three straight outings. Jax is making his first career postseason start, on the road, in October. Ride the hot arm at home.

Under 6.5 (-101). The board's other play. Two sharp righties, a total shaded low for a reason, and Game 2 finished 3-1. The afternoon shadows at Progressive Field do the rest.

Guardians -1.5 (+165). The plus-money swing. If Williams is what he was against Chicago, Cleveland does not win this 2-1. The run line pays better than 3-to-2 for a reason, but the path is real.

VIA DraftKings Sportsbook, SI, Akron Beacon Journal, Bleacher Nation, FanDuel.