Nus Board · MLB

Guardians at Rays Game 1: Lay the Wood With Rasmussen

By The Sports Nus Staff | October 12, 2026

Monday, 8:00 PM ET · Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg · TBS, truTV and HBO Max · ALCS Game 1, series tied 0-0

These two teams arrived in opposite condition. The Rays swept the Yankees in three games behind Victor Mesa Jr.'s heroics and have been sitting at home resting for five days, chasing the franchise's first World Series title. The Guardians survived three straight elimination games, coming back from 0-2 down against the White Sox and winning Game 5 2-0 on Saturday behind Gavin Williams' 5 and 2/3 innings and a Jose Ramirez home run. Cleveland's bullpen is running on fumes: Cade Smith pitched in Games 3, 4 and 5, and Williams even relieved in Game 4 before starting the clincher.

That is why the pitching matchup tilts so hard. Drew Rasmussen was sensational in the ALDS opener against the Yankees: eight shutout innings, ten strikeouts, two walks, a 1-0 win. He gets the ball at home, on full rest, for a team that went 98-64 and owned the season series 5-1. Foster Griffin is the Guardians' gamble: a 30-year-old journeyman acquired from the Nationals at the deadline after an NL All-Star first half, making his first career postseason start. He was brilliant in relief in ALDS Game 3, striking out seven of eleven batters across 2 and 2/3 innings to set a franchise postseason record for a reliever. But relief magic and six innings against the best lineup in the American League are different jobs.

The splits are the quiet edge. Tampa Bay was 25th in baseball with a .679 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season, and 133 of the club's 169 home runs came against righties. So the Rays will have to earn it against the lefty. But Cleveland's offense is the weakest remaining unit in October: 4.2 runs per game, 24th in the majors, a .239 team average. Rasmussen does not walk people and the Guardians do not hit, and the Rays' rested bullpen is the deepest remaining in the postseason. The number is big because the gap is big. Lay it.

Betting angle

Rays ML (-172). The board's play. Rasmussen just went eight shutout against the Yankees, the Rays are rested and won the season series 5-1, and Griffin is making his first postseason start for a bullpen that threw everything it had last week. Heavy chalk, heavy logic.

Under 6.5 (+100). Rasmussen deals, Griffin struck out seven in 2 and 2/3 innings last time out, and Cleveland's offense is the weakest left in October. Plus money on a 3-1, 2-1 type game.

Rays -1.5 (+130). The juice leg. Tampa won the season series 5-1 and its run differential was the best in the AL. If Rasmussen shoves and the Rays get to Griffin the second time through, this is 5-2, not 2-1.

VIA theScore, AP, USA Today, Akron Beacon Journal, DraftKings Sportsbook.